Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Real Estate Loan - no bubble


1. Philippine banks had P2.078 trillion in total real estate exposure as of end-December, 14.7% more than the P1.812 trillion in 2016.Growth eased from the 19.5% pace recorded in 2016.

Notes: Maybe...people who can afford loans already bought house...seeing the trend..will it go down this year? I guess so....besides...interest rate may go up...who dares to loan more...but...still to many people don't have house yet...it won't collapse suddenly right?....OFWs are still buying...

2. Lending for commercial property accounted for two-thirds of the total at P1.193 trillion, up by 17% from P1.019 trillion extended in 2016. On the other hand, home loans grew 14.8% to reach P608.142 billion, versus P529.904 billion in 2016.

Notes: commercial? office and retail stores?...

3. Loans accounted for 20.6% of the banks’ total real estate portfolio, lower than the 20.77% share posted in 2016. Despite the pickup in lending, bad debts grew by a modest 2.2% to P29.46 billion, accounting for just 1.64% of total loans. The BSP requires banks to keep their real estate exposure to a maximum of 20% of their loan books, as part of risk management.

Notes: Sounds still okay...hmmm..

4. Housing prices dropped by 4.6% between April and June, according to results of the central bank’s latest residential real estate price index.

Notes: Yes...it's too expensive...

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MARKET ISSUES

[last partial update : 02/28/2018] Macro and Overseas (a) US interest rate : 1.25 ~ 1.5%, May increase 3 times in 2018 (b) US 10 yr bond...