Friday, February 23, 2018

BLOOM, NOW, Life Time Cellphone Number, EV

1. Enrique Razon’s Solaire Resort & Casino has received Forbes Travel Guide’s highest rating – Five Stars – for the second consecutive year.

Notes: Oh...wanna visit there one day...quite expensive compared to other hotels in the Manila...

2. NOW Telecom Inc. franchise extended until 2043. The bill expands the nature and scope of the franchise to wireless telecommunications systems, including mobile, cellular and fiber optics.

Notes: It's a separate unit with the listed NOW Corp.(NOW) even though the major owners are same. NOW owns around 19% only for now...maybe later, they gonna merge or do something...
Let's see who wins the bid...and what foreign company will join....

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Growing LPG Market in the Philippines

It looks like Philippines don't use LNG for cooking at home. There is not pipeline even in the Manila. Some newly built condos ban using LPG (only Electric ) but still it has big potential even in rural areas, I think. Eventually, all Filipino may use LPG or Electricity for cooking...not wood.

Only several listed companies are doing this business....PPC, PCOR, COSCO, PNX...I'm not sure SHLPH is also engaged in this business...

Notes : The data is as of March, 2017.

1. Supply : 2 refineries, 6 importers, 28 import facilities, around 200 filling plants, more than 100 brands.

2. As the economy grow...demand will grow more...since there are not much alternative cooking fuels...

System Loss, China Loan, PPC

1. ERC lowers system loss cap to 6.5%  from 8.5% for 2018. The cap will be further lowered gradually until it reaches 5.5% in 2021.

Notes: MER's system loss performance is 6.05%. While AP...two of it's power distribution firms has higher than 6.5%....Catobato Light (8.34%), Davao Light (7.18%)...AP may get affected right away...in the long term...both company will be affected...requiring more investment to improve the loss....hmmmm.

Notes: I think they can still make up using other power generation revenues and increasing power consumption...but still loss is loss...TT

2. Government will pursue loans from China despite its price tag of 2-3 percent per annum, even if Japan can offer funding at interest rates between 0.25-0.75 percent.

Notes: Nothing free ha...but can i borrow with that interest rate personally? :)

3. Pryce Properties Corp. (PPC) is building at least 15 new LPG refilling plants in Visayas and Mindanao to make its products closer to consumer markets. All the expansion projects will be finished till 2019.

Notes: It recorded a good income/revenue in 2017. VisMin's volume growth was 22%..while Luzon was 4%..Is it because of PPC's market share or...general volume growth...maybe both.



Tuesday, February 20, 2018

PSE correction history

Notes: Nobody knows how deep and long the corrections will affect. In many cases, we don't even know if it's correction or crash down. There are many symptoms why we should be cautious for the mean time, but even this one....nobody knows...SAD.

The data is from COL Financial.
Using the formal definition of a stock market correction, which is a drop of more than 10% but less than 20%, we identified seven episodes of corrections. Based on the seven episodes, the median magnitude is 13%, while the median duration from peak to trough is four months. On a more optimistic side, there have been shallower corrections of 11% that took only two months to complete.

Date Magnitude Duration (month)
Jan-92 Mar-92 13% 2
Feb-05 Apr-05 11% 2
Oct-10 Feb-11 12% 4
Jul-11 Sep-11 11% 2
Apr-13 Dec-13 17% 8
Mar-15 Jan-16 16% 10
Jul-16 Nov-16 15% 4

Monday, February 19, 2018

Interconnection Charge, RRR, Hot Money

1. Senate Bill 1636 or the Lifetime Cellphone Act
Senators proposed removal of interconnection fees charged by telecommunications firms for all calls and SMS messages.

Notes: It may reduce the burden for users to transfer to 3rd player. It might have the biggest effect for existing telcos, I think. On top of all the infra  and regulation related support from the government...

2. Reduced RRR (Reserve Requirement Rate) will further weaken Peso.

Notes: Higher estimated inflation(4.34%). More liquidity, TRAIN, Weak Peso...looks like money supply to the market will pick up....but how long?

3. NET hot money inflow in Jan 2018 was $162 million. Jan 2017 was $301 million and Dec 2017 was $457 million. 

Notes: At least it was not outflow.


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MARKET ISSUES

[last partial update : 02/28/2018] Macro and Overseas (a) US interest rate : 1.25 ~ 1.5%, May increase 3 times in 2018 (b) US 10 yr bond...