MARKET ISSUES

[last partial update : 02/28/2018]

Macro and Overseas
(a) US interest rate : 1.25 ~ 1.5%, May increase 3 times in 2018
(b) US 10 yr bond : around 2.9....uptrend..now..When it will hit 3.5%?
(c) Crude Oil Price : around $61.54, Can maintain around $60?
(d) Phil Inflation : 4% in Jan, 2018...need to check several months.
(e) Phil Interest Rate: 3%
(f) Phil GDP : 6.7% in 2017....might be stable/outperform over the next years..
(g) Comprehensive Tax Reform Program : SEZ registered companies will be affected?
(h) China 2017 GDP growth : 6.9%...is it a turning around? fundamental will be stable in 2018 also...
(i) FX : 52.35...still uptrend...when it's gonna stop? 55? 56? Who earns dollars?
(j) OFW remittance : $28.1 billion in 2017, 4.3% increase from 2016
(k) Trade War: will ignite? I don't think so.

Mining and Oil
(a) Ban on open-pit mining?
(b) DENR audit result? How many will really be closed? Who are they?
(c) Co-develop of south china sea? if so, what?
(d) Mineral prices?
(e) ban on raw material? Who has processing facilities?

Infra and Property Sector
(a) Who will benefit from Infra era? cement? construction?
(b) Residential demands will be sustained?
(c) BPO/Gaming office demand will be sustained? 40% grow in next 6 years?
(d) How bout commercial especially Mall?
(e) Delays of current projects?

Banking and Financial
(a) Interest rate? 3%...real estate exposure risk?
(b)

Industrial Sector
(a) Power oversupply in Mindanao? When Visaya-Mindanao grid connected?
(b) RCOA : when 750 KW ~ 1MW consumer can choose supplier?
(c) High Fuel Price - Coal, Petroleum...how bout RE?

Utility Sector
(a) 3rd Telco player : Bid may be delayed to May since contenders are asking.
Possible supporting : common tower, frequency reassignment, removing of interconnection charge, liberalization of foreign ownership, NGCP fiber backbone...Foreign company really gonna join? 40% equity...what's their expectation? How long will it take to get back the investment?

Gaming Sector
(a) VAT imposing will hurt them?
(b) Chinese arrival? News said..local demands are stable..or ok.
(c) Online gaming firms are now safe?

Consumer and Retail
(a) Tax will hurt them? sugar, alcohol, cigarette
(b) Inflation will consumer confidence? how long? BSP raised estimation to around 4.36%...hmmm