Tuesday, February 20, 2018

PSE correction history

Notes: Nobody knows how deep and long the corrections will affect. In many cases, we don't even know if it's correction or crash down. There are many symptoms why we should be cautious for the mean time, but even this one....nobody knows...SAD.

The data is from COL Financial.
Using the formal definition of a stock market correction, which is a drop of more than 10% but less than 20%, we identified seven episodes of corrections. Based on the seven episodes, the median magnitude is 13%, while the median duration from peak to trough is four months. On a more optimistic side, there have been shallower corrections of 11% that took only two months to complete.

Date Magnitude Duration (month)
Jan-92 Mar-92 13% 2
Feb-05 Apr-05 11% 2
Oct-10 Feb-11 12% 4
Jul-11 Sep-11 11% 2
Apr-13 Dec-13 17% 8
Mar-15 Jan-16 16% 10
Jul-16 Nov-16 15% 4

Notes: Unfortunately, if index falls 10%...some individual stocks can fall even more than 50%...Ayeee...


In general, it rises for last 10 years....making people more nervous. Hope there is no more system crisis...



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MARKET ISSUES

[last partial update : 02/28/2018] Macro and Overseas (a) US interest rate : 1.25 ~ 1.5%, May increase 3 times in 2018 (b) US 10 yr bond...